According to Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe), the altcoin market capitalization is currently lagging behind Bitcoin by 6 to 8 months, a divergence that started after the launch of PumpFun in early 2024. Prior to this, altcoin and Bitcoin market caps were highly correlated. For traders, this suggests that an immediate altseason is unlikely, but not ruled out; instead, it will likely be delayed. Cas Abbé notes that buying altcoins now is comparable to buying Bitcoin at $60,000 in October 2024, indicating that altcoins may still be overvalued relative to their timing in the cycle. Traders should adjust their portfolio strategies, considering the delayed altcoin cycle and the influence of meme coin platforms like PumpFun, which have shifted capital flows in the crypto market (source: Cas Abbé, Twitter, June 10, 2025).

According to Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe), the delay in the current altseason is primarily attributed to Bitcoin dominance remaining above 50%, which historically suppresses broad altcoin rallies (source: @cas_abbe, May 3, 2025). The thread highlights that a decisive drop in Bitcoin dominance below 50% typically triggers an altseason, as capital rotates into altcoins. Abbé notes that significant inflows into Ethereum and large-cap alts serve as early indicators, while retail euphoria and rapid price appreciation across lower-cap coins signal the peak of altseason. For traders, monitoring Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum’s price action, and sudden surges in altcoin volume can provide actionable entry and exit points. The analysis provides a clear framework to anticipate timing and maximize gains during the next altseason cycle.

According to Cas Abbé on Twitter, the delay of Altseason in 2024 compared to its Q1 start in 2021 is attributed to increased greed among venture capitalists (VCs) and the launch of PumpFun, which have changed market dynamics and liquidity flows (source: Cas Abbé, Twitter, May 3, 2025). These factors have resulted in slower capital rotation into altcoins, impacting trading strategies that previously relied on historical patterns of Altseason timing.

According to Cas Abbé, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) program remains in effect and there will be no interest rate cut in May 2025, as cited directly from his Twitter post on May 3, 2025. This ongoing monetary policy limits liquidity and risk appetite in the crypto market, indicating that key conditions required for an Altseason—such as increased capital inflow and risk-on sentiment—are not yet present. Traders should monitor FED policy announcements closely, as any shift towards easing could quickly alter market dynamics for altcoins (Source: @cas_abbe, Twitter, May 3, 2025).

According to Cas Abbé, 2025 has been particularly challenging for altcoin holders due to the end of the typical Bitcoin to altcoin rotation and the delay of Altseason. Cas Abbé suggests strategies for building an outperforming portfolio this year, emphasizing the need for diversification and careful selection of altcoins with potential growth. This analysis is crucial for traders aiming to generate significant wealth in 2025 despite market challenges.